Sunday, March 17, 2013

time to make hard choices: NCAA bracketology

I put this one on the site a few years ago, but now that so many of you are getting ready to fill out your brackets, I figured I'd better reprise it.

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Here we see an artist’s rendering of Captain Ahab at his moment of decision of which team to choose in some long-forgotten game involving an eight-seed versus a nine-seed in some NCAA Western regional of yore. The entire story, of course, is not depicted, however.

The legend goes that Ahab—in trying to make correct choice for this game in his NCAA basketball tournament brackets used the common tools that all men do. He recalled his rote knowledge of brief snippets of highlights of the teams playing he had seen on ESPN’s Sportscenter. He analyzed the coaches overall records, especially their NCAA tourney history. He compared RPI and strength of schedule. He also considered the overall strength of their respective conferences. He looked at the teams’ won/lost records, including their quality wins against ranked teams and their losses of games against inferior teams. He analyzed their schedules and looked for performances against common opponents.

Ahab factored in the previous performances in the NCAA tournament of the players on the teams, where applicable, and the players’ overall talent and experience. He also considered the “X” factors, such as whether the site of the game was close enough to the teams’ respective campuses that they would have a fan-base in attendance.

Finally, after two solid hours of research, he reached the conclusion he should have reached 120 minutes earlier and had his crew paint the names of the teams on either side of a whale. Then, as we can see depicted here, he stood in the prow of his whaling boat, blindfolded himself, and prepared to let the harpoon aid in his choice.

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