There are three things that come to mind this snowy evening here on the Great Plains.
I bought a CD by Randy Newman on Amazon last week and I listen to it through earphones while I engage in important enterprises on my computer here at home. Two of the three things come from song titles on that CD.
It’s Money That I Love
Short People
The third one is our nemesis Osama bin Laden and his group of merry men.
I read on Yahoo! tonight that Al Qaeda may be planning a cyber attack against financial websites in December. If they do, one of their motivations will be that it’s money that they love. If that’s the case, they will be short people. And as the song goes,
Short people got no reason to live.
“What the hell are you talking about, Jimbo?” many of you are asking. “Is the water cold there in the deep end?”
Yes. Yes, it is.
Well, what I’m talking about is that there are two basic ways to play the financial markets. The vast majority of us wake up in the morning, salute the flag and say we are proud to be Americans and proud to be long the US markets. We own stocks, mutual funds and other equities in our personal and retirement accounts. There are some who play the game a different way and they are said to be “short.” A short borrows your stock from your broker and sells it, putting the proceeds in a cash account. The short is expecting the value of the stock he borrowed and sold to go down. He will buy it back at a later time for less money, thereby making a profit. There are many derivative plays one can play on both sides such as options, warrants, etc., and the short person can play options to leverage his buying (or selling) power.
If Al Qaeda is planning an attack on financial websites, one result of such an attack would be a loss of confidence in the financial system and the markets by the people who are invested in these instruments (the “longs” I described earlier). If these attacks were to occur, a result would logically be a decline in the value of stocks. Let me use a recent movie to illustrate how this would work.
Last weekend we saw Casino Royale. It was a reasonably good movie. One of the subplots was that the villain went short on a company that was introducing the world’s largest jet airliner (despite his broker’s warning that everyone was going to make money buying that stock). The villain used the option chain to leverage his short position with the intention of sabotaging the aircraft and deflating the stock. I’ll make you have to go see the movie to know whether he was successful in sabotaging the plane or whether James Bond kicked his ass. But the villain’s plan was to make the stock go down by illegal means—sort of an insider-trading scheme.
This, I believe, is why that if Al Qaeda launches an attack, they will be firmly ensconced in short positions in all the financial firms first. While this might sound crazy, there is a story that has drifted through the financial blogsites for years that Al Qaeda opened short positions in the major airlines’ stocks shortly before September 11, 2001. That scenario was also spoken about in Casino Royale. And, while I’m sure that Al Qaeda insiders all had short positions on that infamous day, I’ll go to my grave confident that the brokerage statement for the man with the biggest short position was mailed to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
If you see the percentage of short positions in the stocks of US financial firms begin to rise, then you should take on an appropriate amount of fear. However, if you don’t mind, I’ll continue to thumb my nose at Al Qaeda and its oddball headmaster. I’ll stay long—long and strong.
At least, that’s the way the prevailing wind is blowing here tonight in Jimbo’s world.
Thursday, November 30, 2006
Sunday, November 26, 2006
the baron, dean, mark and a couple of dubyas
I’m wondering this morning whether Mrs. Elizabeth (T.D.) Lawson is still with us. I remember when I was living in Lawrence, KS, the local newspaper would interview her every spring—usually sometime in mid-March. I’m confident she didn’t have game, but she had a story. It was always about watching her brother shoot baskets at the family homestead in Halstead, KS, sometime early during the second decade of the twentieth century. Many of us remember the twentieth century, but few remember where we were in 1911. Mrs. Lawson did. Her brother, Adolph Rupp, went on to play four years for Phog Allen at the University of Kansas. While there he played on the 1923 national championship team. Later, he coached the University of Kentucky, where he was known as “The Baron of the Bluegrass,” and retired as the winningest college basketball coach of all time. John Wooden and Dean Smith have since passed him, but it is still in the family as Dean Smith is also a KU grad and played on the 1952 national championship team.
Halstead is just North of Wichita, and yesterday, in Baton Rouge, LA, the Wichita State Shockers upset six-ranked LSU in basketball. The shockers are coached by former KU player and coach, Mark Turgeon. That was about the most exciting thing that happened in Kansas basketball yesterday. That is only because when the University of Kansas knocked off number one Florida, it was actually Sunday morning here. Kansas played Florida in a city that the Associated Press referred to as Lawrence, Nevada. It is a city that just happens to be my home away from home, but I prefer to call it by its real name, Las Vegas, Nevada.
It was an exciting game, late last night and in the wee hours of the morning, here, but I am reminded how basketball is a game that is determined by a hot hand, and the best team doesn’t always win. I’m not sure if Kansas is really better than Florida. After all, Florida had an open look at a three-ball as time expired. The shot was short and the game was over, but it was one of those fifty-fifty chances and it could have gone either way.
It’s a lot more fun, though, when your team wins, even if it requires that one stays up past his bedtime.
Rock chalk.
At least, that’s what we say in Jimbo’s world.
Halstead is just North of Wichita, and yesterday, in Baton Rouge, LA, the Wichita State Shockers upset six-ranked LSU in basketball. The shockers are coached by former KU player and coach, Mark Turgeon. That was about the most exciting thing that happened in Kansas basketball yesterday. That is only because when the University of Kansas knocked off number one Florida, it was actually Sunday morning here. Kansas played Florida in a city that the Associated Press referred to as Lawrence, Nevada. It is a city that just happens to be my home away from home, but I prefer to call it by its real name, Las Vegas, Nevada.
It was an exciting game, late last night and in the wee hours of the morning, here, but I am reminded how basketball is a game that is determined by a hot hand, and the best team doesn’t always win. I’m not sure if Kansas is really better than Florida. After all, Florida had an open look at a three-ball as time expired. The shot was short and the game was over, but it was one of those fifty-fifty chances and it could have gone either way.
It’s a lot more fun, though, when your team wins, even if it requires that one stays up past his bedtime.
Rock chalk.
At least, that’s what we say in Jimbo’s world.
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
it's christmas eve and these shoes are just her size...
Well, it was bound to happen.
One leads ones life dangerously and one puts himself in harms way. That's what happened last night.
First of all, let me explain that I have been taking a bit of good-natured ribbing about the fact that I have been listening to Christmas music over the past couple of weeks. That's okay. I can take the heat. I can take the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. After all, the ribbing has been in jest. I actually think that Jimbo's girlfriend is starting to enjoy the Christmas music, though she acts as if she does not.
Last night, however, I faced the obvious danger of listening to that kind of music. Yes, you guessed it.
They played that damned "Christmas Shoes" song.
Fortunately, however, they chose to put it on the airwaves just as we were driving into the parking lot of our local supermarket. I hurried up and got into a parking space and turned off the car, and coincidentally the radio. I only had to listen to the part where the guy was hurriedly doing his Christmas shopping, wasn't in the Christmas mood and had not yet arrived at the checkout counter where the saccharine-coated sentimentality occurs.
I was spared this time. But, I'm concerned that it will happen again, sometime before the season is over, and I will hear that little bastard sing his song.
I lucked out this time, but how many times will I be spared?
Only time will tell, here in Jimbo's world.
One leads ones life dangerously and one puts himself in harms way. That's what happened last night.
First of all, let me explain that I have been taking a bit of good-natured ribbing about the fact that I have been listening to Christmas music over the past couple of weeks. That's okay. I can take the heat. I can take the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. After all, the ribbing has been in jest. I actually think that Jimbo's girlfriend is starting to enjoy the Christmas music, though she acts as if she does not.
Last night, however, I faced the obvious danger of listening to that kind of music. Yes, you guessed it.
They played that damned "Christmas Shoes" song.
Fortunately, however, they chose to put it on the airwaves just as we were driving into the parking lot of our local supermarket. I hurried up and got into a parking space and turned off the car, and coincidentally the radio. I only had to listen to the part where the guy was hurriedly doing his Christmas shopping, wasn't in the Christmas mood and had not yet arrived at the checkout counter where the saccharine-coated sentimentality occurs.
I was spared this time. But, I'm concerned that it will happen again, sometime before the season is over, and I will hear that little bastard sing his song.
I lucked out this time, but how many times will I be spared?
Only time will tell, here in Jimbo's world.
Sunday, November 19, 2006
Friday, November 10, 2006
two years to the day
Some anniversaries today include the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald in Lake Superior on November 10, 1975, and the first time I blogged (coincidently about the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald) on November 10, 2004.
Those of you who were reading back in those days two years ago may recall that I seemed to post more often back then. Those were, of course, during my days of leisure and, since I have un-retired, there doesn’t seem to be as much time to write these things.
My plan is, however, to continue doing it. I’ll continue to give you a piece of my mind—albeit a small piece—as there is not much to spare.
Jimbo’s girlfriend is up early today and so I got up early, too, and I am going to work early. I hope we all have a productive and a good day.
Those of you who were reading back in those days two years ago may recall that I seemed to post more often back then. Those were, of course, during my days of leisure and, since I have un-retired, there doesn’t seem to be as much time to write these things.
My plan is, however, to continue doing it. I’ll continue to give you a piece of my mind—albeit a small piece—as there is not much to spare.
Jimbo’s girlfriend is up early today and so I got up early, too, and I am going to work early. I hope we all have a productive and a good day.
Monday, November 06, 2006
the book of revelations
Life is good.
Tuesday will be an interesting day. If I were a betting man, I would wager the Republicans will hold on to at least one of the two bastions of the legislative branch. This would mean that nothing much will change in Washington over the next two years.
Wait a minute! I am a betting man. And, Jimbo, you may be asking, why are you saying that life is good if you are convinced the election tomorrow isn’t going to change anything?
That is because tonight at dinner I had a revelation.
My visions were different than the ones recorded by some scribe in the court of St. James who got all doped up or drunked up and penned that surrealistic final book of the New Testament, and while doing it probably said something to his companions like:
“Egad, Sirs, doth thou perceive the colours?”
The primary difference was that I was only drinking tea, though I will admit I had more than one.
I live in one of the most conservative states in the nation. The county to the south of the one in which I reside is regarded as one of the most conservative in the most conservative state in the nation. That county is so conservative that a best seller was written a couple of years ago documenting the county’s conservatism.
As I looked around the restaurant in which we were dining, I made the comment to my girlfriend that the place reminded me of the many restaurants in that conservative southern county. I also made the comment that all of the other people in the place had probably come from that county to get a bite to eat and have a drink. They were talking on cell phones and drinking alcoholic beverages. They were paying for their meals and drinks with credit cards. They were watching images on flat-screen monitors.
So what, Jimbo, you may be asking? Then you may be adding, “It looks like Jimbo has finally slipped off into the deep end.”
We all lie to ourselves to some degree. And my point is that sometimes we have a different image of ourselves than what actually may be true. While true conservatives hold on to the old ways and resist progress, I’m convinced these “conservatives” may have slipped off the left hand side of the fence.
The primary tenant of progressive western thought is that the only constant is change and, as Americans we have pushed the envelope of change—and we have pushed it hard. When the true conservative legislators in the western three-fourths of our state said that we would never change our mores and enjoy an alcoholic beverage with our meals in public places, we first said, “Oh, yeah?” Later we went into the voting booths and interjected our opinion. After that, we sat down in public places and enjoyed a potent potable with our repast.
When the electorate put a school board into place that outlawed Darwin, it dawned on us that our kids would go into school dumb and come out dumb, too, if the school board stole knowledge from us. We kicked their asses off the school board a quick as you can say “natural selection.”
When we go to the polls tomorrow, somewhere close by there will be a pole with a rectangular piece of cloth on it. Up in the corner of that piece of cloth, there will be a blue rectangle with fifty white stars-- one for each of the states of the union—symbolic of a union as perfect as any that has ever existed. There will be thirteen horizontal alternating stripes of red and white, representing the original colonies from which this nation emerged. That piece of cloth represents the progression of western civilization, and as long as it stands, we will never, as a country, stand still. We will continue to move ahead. Just let anybody try to stop us.
Life is good.
And we’ll stand by that statement here in Jimbo’s world.
Tuesday will be an interesting day. If I were a betting man, I would wager the Republicans will hold on to at least one of the two bastions of the legislative branch. This would mean that nothing much will change in Washington over the next two years.
Wait a minute! I am a betting man. And, Jimbo, you may be asking, why are you saying that life is good if you are convinced the election tomorrow isn’t going to change anything?
That is because tonight at dinner I had a revelation.
My visions were different than the ones recorded by some scribe in the court of St. James who got all doped up or drunked up and penned that surrealistic final book of the New Testament, and while doing it probably said something to his companions like:
“Egad, Sirs, doth thou perceive the colours?”
The primary difference was that I was only drinking tea, though I will admit I had more than one.
I live in one of the most conservative states in the nation. The county to the south of the one in which I reside is regarded as one of the most conservative in the most conservative state in the nation. That county is so conservative that a best seller was written a couple of years ago documenting the county’s conservatism.
As I looked around the restaurant in which we were dining, I made the comment to my girlfriend that the place reminded me of the many restaurants in that conservative southern county. I also made the comment that all of the other people in the place had probably come from that county to get a bite to eat and have a drink. They were talking on cell phones and drinking alcoholic beverages. They were paying for their meals and drinks with credit cards. They were watching images on flat-screen monitors.
So what, Jimbo, you may be asking? Then you may be adding, “It looks like Jimbo has finally slipped off into the deep end.”
We all lie to ourselves to some degree. And my point is that sometimes we have a different image of ourselves than what actually may be true. While true conservatives hold on to the old ways and resist progress, I’m convinced these “conservatives” may have slipped off the left hand side of the fence.
The primary tenant of progressive western thought is that the only constant is change and, as Americans we have pushed the envelope of change—and we have pushed it hard. When the true conservative legislators in the western three-fourths of our state said that we would never change our mores and enjoy an alcoholic beverage with our meals in public places, we first said, “Oh, yeah?” Later we went into the voting booths and interjected our opinion. After that, we sat down in public places and enjoyed a potent potable with our repast.
When the electorate put a school board into place that outlawed Darwin, it dawned on us that our kids would go into school dumb and come out dumb, too, if the school board stole knowledge from us. We kicked their asses off the school board a quick as you can say “natural selection.”
When we go to the polls tomorrow, somewhere close by there will be a pole with a rectangular piece of cloth on it. Up in the corner of that piece of cloth, there will be a blue rectangle with fifty white stars-- one for each of the states of the union—symbolic of a union as perfect as any that has ever existed. There will be thirteen horizontal alternating stripes of red and white, representing the original colonies from which this nation emerged. That piece of cloth represents the progression of western civilization, and as long as it stands, we will never, as a country, stand still. We will continue to move ahead. Just let anybody try to stop us.
Life is good.
And we’ll stand by that statement here in Jimbo’s world.
Saturday, November 04, 2006
one man; one vote
Several weeks ago on a Sunday afternoon, I was lying on the couch, resting my eyes after a long weekend of working around the house. I injured my left hand a couple of months ago and I’ve been an invalid since, so any physical work is a problem for me, so, like I said, I was resting. I was awakened by a knock on the door. I was too sleepy to realize what I was doing and I got up and answered it. Fortunately, it was not a Jehovah’s Witness at the door.
It was, however, a candidate for state representative and since I had answered the door, I was committed to talk to him. I figured I’d give him some crap and get rid of him in a hurry, but I had to wake up, first. I stepped out on the porch and listened to him while I rubbed the sleep from my eyes. He told me he was against negative campaigning and he wanted to bring a positive message. He seemed like an OK guy to me. After I woke up, I asked him some economic questions and I realized immediately he knew what he was talking about. He told me he owned an economic consulting firm, so that probably explained it. I told him if he stayed positive he had my vote. We have received several mailings from him since and he has kept his word.
Yesterday, we received a mailing from his opponent that blamed the gentleman I met that Sunday afternoon for about every crisis that has ever affected this nation. Remember that time that Howard Dean got all excited and started yelling? I guess the guy I spoke to was responsible for that, somehow. He is also responsible for all the social problems this country has. I considered this pretty impressive, considering he is running for this office for the first time.
We threw the mailing from his opponent into the trash. I’ve pretty much had my fill of negative ads this political season. It is a shame that we will consistently elect the candidate who runs the dirtiest ads. I guess that the result is that we get the kind of government we deserve.
All I know is that one candidate promised me he would stay positive and he has kept his word. Come Tuesday, I’ll go to the polls and keep my word, too. After all, we have a deal. Then, we’ll let the chips fall where they may.
At least that’s our plan, here in Jimbo’s world.
It was, however, a candidate for state representative and since I had answered the door, I was committed to talk to him. I figured I’d give him some crap and get rid of him in a hurry, but I had to wake up, first. I stepped out on the porch and listened to him while I rubbed the sleep from my eyes. He told me he was against negative campaigning and he wanted to bring a positive message. He seemed like an OK guy to me. After I woke up, I asked him some economic questions and I realized immediately he knew what he was talking about. He told me he owned an economic consulting firm, so that probably explained it. I told him if he stayed positive he had my vote. We have received several mailings from him since and he has kept his word.
Yesterday, we received a mailing from his opponent that blamed the gentleman I met that Sunday afternoon for about every crisis that has ever affected this nation. Remember that time that Howard Dean got all excited and started yelling? I guess the guy I spoke to was responsible for that, somehow. He is also responsible for all the social problems this country has. I considered this pretty impressive, considering he is running for this office for the first time.
We threw the mailing from his opponent into the trash. I’ve pretty much had my fill of negative ads this political season. It is a shame that we will consistently elect the candidate who runs the dirtiest ads. I guess that the result is that we get the kind of government we deserve.
All I know is that one candidate promised me he would stay positive and he has kept his word. Come Tuesday, I’ll go to the polls and keep my word, too. After all, we have a deal. Then, we’ll let the chips fall where they may.
At least that’s our plan, here in Jimbo’s world.
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